Overview

A casino bonus EV calculator estimates whether a promotion is attractive after the fine print is included. The headline offer can look generous, but the real value depends on the wagering requirement, game RTP, game contribution, maximum cashout, maximum bet and the chance that the bankroll does not survive long enough to finish the rollover. This tool turns those terms into a practical expected value estimate. It is designed for screening bonuses before you commit money, not for encouraging gambling or promising a profit.

The central idea is simple: a bonus has value, but clearing it requires betting volume. Every eligible bet has an average cost equal to the house edge. If a game returns 96.7%, the long-run house edge is 3.3%. If the offer asks for thirty times the bonus in wagering, that cost can easily consume the bonus. Contribution rules matter just as much. A table game contributing 25% effectively quadruples the betting volume compared with a 100% contributing game.

How to use the calculator

Start with the required deposit and the actual credited bonus. Enter the wagering multiple exactly as written in the terms. If the casino applies wagering to bonus only, set the deposit share to 0%. If the terms say deposit plus bonus, use 100%. For mixed rules, enter the relevant percentage. Add the RTP of the eligible game you would realistically play, not the best RTP on the site if that game is excluded. Then enter the contribution rate, cashout cap, maximum bet and a conservative completion-risk estimate.

Formula and method

The calculator builds a wagering base from the bonus plus the selected deposit share. It multiplies that base by the wagering multiple, then divides by game contribution to get effective wagering. Expected wagering loss equals effective wagering multiplied by house edge, where house edge is 1 minus RTP. Bonus EV equals the clearable bonus value minus that expected loss. The risk-adjusted EV additionally discounts the result for the chance that the offer is not completed.

Interpreting the results

A positive EV means the simplified average-value model favors the player. A negative value means the wagering cost is larger than the clearable bonus. The break-even RTP result is especially useful because it shows how generous the game would need to be for the offer to make sense. If the required RTP is unrealistic or the effective wagering is very high, the bonus is probably unattractive even when the headline number looks large.

Practical example

Suppose a promotion gives a 100 euro bonus with 30x bonus-only wagering. The eligible slot has 96.7% RTP and contributes 100%. Effective wagering is 3,000 euros. The expected loss is 99 euros, so the house-edge EV is about 1 euro before risk. If the same game contributed only 50%, effective wagering would become 6,000 euros and the expected loss would double to 198 euros. That turns the same headline bonus into a clearly negative offer.

Limitations

This calculator is an educational screening tool. It does not model exact slot volatility, bonus-abuse restrictions, changing bet sizes, game availability, tax rules, withdrawal delays or individual gambling behavior. It also cannot remove the risk of losing money. Treat the output as a way to understand terms, set strict limits and avoid promotions whose math is already poor before variance begins.